Tracking the Awards Buzz: The Oscar Race in November 2025 (Part Two)

With the only remaining film yet to screen for awards voters being Avatar: Fire & Ash, I finally feel confident enough to share my first official set of predictions across most categories, with the exception of the shorts. This season has already proven to be unpredictable. Several major titles that premiered to considerable hype back in September have lost a noticeable amount of momentum, and some are now facing steep uphill battles due to poor box office results and the early wave of awards season smear campaigns.

It is difficult to know at this stage which films will find their footing and stay in the race. What seems clear is that the absence of a true frontrunner in most categories is creating a real competitive landscape. The next two months leading up to Oscar nominations will likely be chaotic and quite messy as studios and supporters push harder to shape the narrative.

With that said, let’s dive into the nomination predictions as to where the major contenders appear to be standing in the race right now.

Best Casting

This year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences finally added a long overdue award category for Casting Directors. With a season overflowing with remarkable individual performances and unforgettable ensemble work, there could not be a better time to celebrate casting. These are the films that I believe stand out as the current frontrunners in this exciting new category.

1. One Battle After Another (WB)
2. Sinners (WB)
3. Sentimental Value (Neon)
4. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
5. Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Runner-Ups

1. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
2. Marty Supreme (A24)
3. Hamnet (Focus)
4. Frankenstein (Netflix)
5. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners (WB)
2. One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Train Dreams (Netflix)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Frankenstein (Netflix)

Runner-Ups

1. Hamnet (Focus)
2. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
3. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
4. Avatar: Fire & Ash (20th Century)
5. F1 (Apple)

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
2. Frankenstein (Netflix)
3. Sinners (WB)
4. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
5. Hamnet (Focus Features)

Runner-Ups

1. Marty Supreme (A24)
2. One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)
4. Hedda (Amazon MGM)
5. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (Focus Features)

Best Film Editing

1. One Battle After Another (WB)
2. Sinners (WB)
3. Marty Supreme (A24)
4. Hamnet (Focus Features)
5. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

Runner-Ups

1. F1: The Movie (Apple)
2. Sentimental Value (Neon)
3. No Other Choice (Neon)
4. Frankenstein (Netflix)
5. Bugonia (Focus Features)

Best Makeup And Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein (Netflix)
2. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
3. Sinners (WB)
4. Bugonia (Focus Features)
5. Weapons (WB)

Runner-Ups

1. The Smashing Machine (A24)
2. Blue Moon (SPC)
3. One Battle After Another (WB)
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)
5. 28 Years Later (Sony Pictures)

Best Original Song

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (WB)
3. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (Greenwich)
5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

Runner-Ups

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
2. “Last Time (I Seen The Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros) 
3. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix)
4. “Dream as One from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
5. “Lose My Mind” from F1: The Movie (Apple)

Best Original Score

1. Sinners (WB)
2. Hamnet (Focus Features)
3. One Battle After Another (WB)
4. Frankenstein (Netflix)
5. Marty Supreme (A24)

Runner-Ups

1. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
2. Bugonia (Focus Features)
3. Train Dreams (Netflix)
4. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
5. The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features)

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein (Netflix)
2. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
3. Sinners (WB)
4. Hamnet (Focus Features)
5. Marty Supreme (A24)

Runner-Ups

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash (20th Century)
2. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
3. One Battle After Another (WB)
4. Train Dreams (Netflix)
5. The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features)

Best Sound

1. F1: The Movie (Apple)
2. Avatar: Fire & Ash (20th Century)
3. One Battle After Another (WB)
4. Sinners (WB)
5. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

Runner-Ups

1. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
2. Train Dreams (Netflix)
3. Frankenstein (Netflix)
4. Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash (20th Century)
2. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
3. Frankenstein (Netflix)
4. Superman (WB)
5. F1: The Movie (Apple)

Runner-Ups

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Disney/Marvel)
2. How to Train Your Dragon (Universal Pictures)
3. Jurassic Park: Rebirth (Universal Pictures)
4. Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures)
5. Tron: Ares (Walt Disney Pictures)

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
2. Zootopia 2 (Disney)
3. Arco (Neon)
4. Elio (Disney)
5. Scarlet (Sony Pictures)

Runner-Ups

1. In Your Dreams (Netflix)
2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Sony)
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
4. Dog Man (Universal Pictures)
5. The Bad Guys 2 (Universal Pictures)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
2. Cover-Up (Netflix)
3. Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
5. The Alabama Solution (HBO)

Runner-Ups

1. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)
2. Deaf President Now! (Apple)
3. It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley (Magnolia)
4. My Mom Jayne (HBO)
5. Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass)

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. No Other Choice (Neon)
3. It Was Just An Accident (Neon)
4. The Secret Agent (Neon)
5. Belén (Amazon MGM)

Runner-Ups

1. Sirāt (Neon)
2. Left-Handed Girl (Netflix)
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
4. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)
5. Sound of Falling (Mubi)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Sinners (WB)
3. It Was Just An Accident (Neon)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Runner-Ups

1. Sorry, Baby (A24)
2. Weapons (WB)
3. Rental Family (Searchlight)
4. Roofman (Paramount Pictures)
5. The Secret Agent (Neon)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Bugonia (Focus Features)
4. No Other Choice (Neon)
5. Frankenstein (Netflix)

Runner-Ups

1. Train Dreams (Netflix)
2. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
3. Rental Family (Searchlight)
4. Roofman (Paramount Pictures)
5. The Secret Agent (Neon)

Best Director

1. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Ryan Coogler – Sinners (WB)
4. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix)
5. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (Neon)

Runner-Ups

1. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24)
2. Park Chan-Wook – No Other Choice (Neon)
3. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos – Bugonia (Focus Features)
5. James Cameron – Avatar: Fire & Ash (20th Century)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan – Weapons (WB)
2. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
4. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (Neon) 
5. Hailee Steinfeld – Sinners (WB)

Runner-Ups

1. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme (A24)
2. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (WB)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (Neon)
4. Regina Hall – One Battle After Another (WB)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme (A24)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (WB)
2. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (Neon)
3. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix)
4. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (WB)
5. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Runner-Ups

1. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (WB)
3. Miles Caton – Sinners (WB)
4. Billy Crudup – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
5. Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century)

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (Neon)
3. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) 
4. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features)
5. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (Focus Features)

Runner-Ups

1. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (WB)
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
3. Sydney Sweeney – Christy (Black Bear) 
4. Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
5. Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (WB) 
4. George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
5. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (Neon)

Runner-Ups

1. Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams (Netflix)
2. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Focus Features) 
3. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (A24)
4. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)

Best Picture

1. Marty Supreme (A24)
2. One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Hamnet (Focus Features)
4. Sinners (WB)
5. Sentimental Value (Neon)
6. Frankenstein (Netflix)
7. It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
8. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
9. No Other Choice (Neon)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Fox)

Runner-Ups

1. Bugonia (Focus Features)
2. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
3. The Secret Agent (Neon)
4. Train Dreams (Netflix)
5. Weapons (WB)
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
7. F1: The Movie (Apple)
8. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
9. Rental Family (Searchlight)
10. Sorry, Baby (A24)