Nominations for the 98th Oscars will be announced in 24 categories on Thursday, January 22nd.
This category definitely has its frontrunners, with four people nominated by the Directors Guild of America, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice Awards: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), and Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein). Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) was cited by both the DGA and CCA, while Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) was honored by the Globes and CCA. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident) was a Globe nominee. The likeliest name not on any of those lists to bump one of these seven out would be Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent), with Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice) and Óliver Laxe (Sirāt) also possible. It’s worth considering Clint Bentley (Train Dreams), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Joseph Kosinski (F1), and Richard Linklater (Blue Moon), while the ship has likely sailed for Mona Fastvold (The Testament of Ann Lee), Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly), Kathryn Bigelow (A House of Dynamite), and Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good).
There’s no way that surefire winner Anderson misses the list, and, though he wasn’t always a sure thing, Del Toro is almost definitely in since he’s so well-respected in the industry and this would only be his second-ever nomination. It’s almost inconceivable to think that Zhao or Coogler would miss, but it’s possible that voters will be confident enough in them getting in that they’ll choose to recognize other films instead. Trier felt like a lock earlier this season, and having him and Panahi make the cut would make sense given the recent trend of foreign directors nabbing a spot (or two in 2023 when Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest both got in here or 2018 with Roma and Cold War), but is there room for both of them? Safdie seems to be surging but his Golden Globe miss isn’t promising, while Mendonça Filho could benefit from his film catapulting past the other NEON titles in the foreign film race at precursor ceremonies. The last time this list matched the DGA list exactly was way back in 2009.
Predicted nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein)
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
