Scott Menzel’s Oscar Predictions: September 2024

With the Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, and Toronto International Film Festival now behind us, we are officially in the 2024/2025 film awards season. These three film festivals are known for kicking off the season, and this year proved to be no different. Before I jump into my initial predictions, I want to look back at some of the festivals from earlier this year and see what titles from those festivals ended up in the awards conversation.

The Sundance Film Festival

Since the pandemic, the Sundance Film Festival has lost some steam. While I still love the festival because it is about discovering rising talent and filmmakers, the number of titles that go on to be nominated for awards has significantly decreased. Many films that have premiered at Sundance over the past three years feel like streaming titles, not ones I would recommend seeking out in the theater. That said, Sundance continues to be an excellent festival for documentaries. Will & Harper and Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story will likely be in the Best Documentary conversation leading to the 97th Annual Academy Awards.

Regarding traditional narrative features, I think A Real Pain has the potential to generate a sizable amount of awards buzz, especially for Kieran Culkin as a Supporting Actor and the film in Original Screenplay. A Best Picture nomination is up in the air, as The Brutalist may end up stealing the film’s chances of being nominated. With how much religion has been a hot-button topic in the media, I doubt that two movies about Jews will end up getting a Best Picture slot. It is a weird year for three significant awards players to be centered around religious themes, but I think they all will receive their fair share of nominations, which are very much deserved. I also believe that Academy voters will love A Real Pain because even though it is about the Holocaust, the film isn’t a total downer. It has elements of comedy to it, and I think that is important during these times.

The Outrun, which also played at the festival, could land Saoirse Ronan a Best Actress nomination, but that is the only nomination I can see the film receiving. That said, considering Apple TV+ is releasing Blitz, I think The Outrun will generate significantly less buzz for Ronan. Apple has the money to build a more extensive awards campaign for her. She might get in at the Gothams or Indie Spirit Awards for The Outrun, but I think the nominations for the bigger prizes will end up coming from Blitz.

Cannes Film Festival

Sundance and the Cannes Film Festival seemed to have swapped with the number of films that ended up being in the awards conversation. This year, two significant awards prospects, Anora and Emilia Perez, premiered at the Cannes Film Festival, where they received a lot of love and won awards. These films went on to play at the Telluride Film Festival and TIFF, which pretty much locked them in as massive awards players, so expect to hear about them a lot over the next seven months.

Other award-hopeful titles that premiered at Cannes include The Apprentice, The Substance and Megalopolis. While I doubt any of these titles will receive much award attention, I do think there is a good possibility that Demi Moore could sneak into the Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress race, depending on how Mubi slots her for The Substance. Moore is not only great in the film but a Hollywood icon. I can see how those in the industry will push for her to receive a nomination.

Initial Predictions

Attending Venice and TIFF back-to-back was a great way to see a lot of award titles, but even with 30 titles now off my list, I still have about two dozen left to see between now and November. Titles that I believe will be part of the conversation that I haven’t seen yet include The Outrun, Nickel Boys, Blitz, The Piano Lesson, Here, Juror No. 2, Memoir of a Snail, A Complete Unknown, Gladiator 2, Hard Truths, and September 5. I hope to see most of these sooner rather than later, but all of them before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Best Picture Predictions

1. The Brutalist 
2. Conclave 
3. Anora
4. Emilia Perez 
5. Saturday Night 
6. September 5th
7. Dune: Part Two
8. Nickel Boys
9. Blitz 
10. Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Actor Predictions

1. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
2. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
3. Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown 
4. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist 
5. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Actress Predictions

1. Angelina Jolie – Maria 
2. Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
3. Mikey Madison – Anora 
4. Saoirse Ronan – Blitz  
5. Demi Moore – The Substance 

Best Supporting Actor Predictions

1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
2. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist 
3. Stanley Tucci – Conclave
4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing 
5. Denzel Washington – Gladiator 2 

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

1. Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux
2. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys 
4. Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
5. Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez

Best Director Predictions

1. Sean Baker – Anora 
2. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist 
3. Edward Berger – Conclave 
4. Jason Reitman – Saturday Night 
5. Steve McQueen – Blitz 

Best Original Screenplay Predictions

1. Saturday Night
2. A Real Pain
3. Anora
4. Blitz 
5. The Brutalist 

Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions

1. Conclave
2. Sing Sing 
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Nickel Boys 
5. Hit Man 

Best Animated Feature Predictions

1. The Wild Robot
2. Inside Out 2
3. Moana 2 
4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
5. Memoir of a Snail 

Best Documentary Feature Predictions

1. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
2. Will & Harper
3. Men of War
4. Daughters
5. Sugarcane

Best International Feature Predictions

1. Emilia Perez 
2. The Seed of a Sacred Fig
3. All We Imagine as Light
4. Dahomey
5. Cloud

Best Score Predictions

1. The Wild Robot
2. Conclave
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Challengers
5. Saturday Night

Best Original Song Predictions

1. TBA – Wicked 
2. TBA – Emilia Perez 
3. TBA – The Wild Robot 
4. TBA – Moana 2
5. TBA – Piece by Piece 

Best Cinematography Predictions

1. The Brutalist  
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Maria
4. Emilia Perez 
5. Nosferatu

Best Costume Design Predictions

1. Wicked
2. Nosferatu 
3. Joker: Folie à Deux
4. Blitz 
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing Predictions

1. Saturday Night
2. Anora 
3. Gladiator 2 
4. Challengers 
5. Dune: Part Two 

Best Makeup & Hairstyling Predictions

1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 
2. Maria 
3. Nosferatu
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Wicked 

Best Production Design Predictions

1. Conclave
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Wicked 
4. The Brutalist 
5. Saturday Night 

Best Sound Predictions

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Challengers 
3. Twisters
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
5. A Complete Unknown

Best Visual Effects Predictions

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
4. Gladiator 2 
5. Wicked