Tracking the Awards Buzz: The Oscar Race in January 2026

The Oscar nominations will be revealed this Thursday, January 22, 2026, and it will be fascinating to see how the race ultimately shakes out. As anyone following the season already knows, One Battle After Another and Sinners remain the strongest bets, with Hamnet holding firm in third place. At this stage, however, I do see a plausible path where Hamnet ultimately overtakes both One Battle After Another and Sinners to claim the top prize, and not because it won Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes.

Hamnet is an emotional film that genuinely tugs at the heartstrings. As we saw with CODA back in 2022, emotionally driven films can strongly resonate with Academy voters. The key difference between CODA and Hamnet, however, are the tonal elements: one leans heavily into melancholy, while the other ultimately leaves audiences feeling hope and joy. I don’t know exactly how this three-film battle will come to a close, but it feels increasingly certain that one of these titles will walk away with the Best Picture Oscar.

Another major takeaway from December and January is that Timothée Chalamet has emerged as the clear frontrunner for Best Actor. I sensed this immediately after walking out of a Marty Supreme screening back in November. While the buzz around the film has become more mixed as it has reached wider audiences, it is difficult to argue that any of the likely male nominees are operating on the same level as Chalamet is this year.

The same confidence applies to Jessie Buckley in Best Actress. Aside from Rose Byrne’s strong critics’ showing, Buckley appears to have this category largely locked up. Academy voters may struggle with the themes and storytelling of If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and while that is unfortunate for Byrne, she has had an impressive season and will still land a nomination on Thursday.

Both Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress have been particularly fascinating races to watch. The Actor Awards snub of the entire Sentimental Value cast was heartbreaking, and while it’s hard to imagine Stellan Skarsgård missing an Oscar nomination, questions remain about the strength of the film’s overall campaign. A similar uncertainty surrounds Amy Madigan, though she arguably benefits from her icon status among peers, and Weapons appears to be universally loved. It will be especially interesting to see how these categories ultimately break.

With that in mind, below are my predictions across every Oscar category.

Predicted Nominees for Best Picture:

1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. One Battle After Another
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Bugonia
7. Sentimental Value
8. Train Dreams
9. Wicked: For Good
10. The Secret Agent

Best Picture Runner-ups

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. No Other Choice
3. Weapons
4. F1
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash
6. Sirât
7. Sorry, Baby
8. Jay Kelly
9. Rental Family
10. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Nominees for Best Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
3. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
4. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
5. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine

Best Actor Runner-ups

1. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
2. Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams
3. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
4. Lee Byung-Hun – No Other Choice
5. Brendan Fraser – Rental Family

Predicted Nominees for Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
4. Emma Stone – Bugonia
5. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another

Best Actress Runner-Ups

1. Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby
2. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
3. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
4. Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Predicted Nominees for Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
2. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
3. Sean Penn – Sentimental Value
4. Miles Caton – Sinners
5. Paul Mescal – Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor Runner-Ups

1. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
2. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
3. Delroy Lindo – Sinners
4. Josh O’ Connor – Wake Up Dead Man
5. William H. Macy – Train Dreams

Predicted Nominees for Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan – Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
3. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actress Runner-Ups

1. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
2. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
3. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
4. Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme
5. Regina Hall – Sinners

Predicted Nominees for Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
4. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Best Director Runner-Ups

1. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
2. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – Bugonia
4. Park Chan-wook – No Other Choice
5. Kleber Mendonca Filho – The Secret Agent

Predicted Nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Frankenstein
4. Train Dreams
5. Bugonia
   
   Best Adapted Screenplay Runner-Ups

1. Wicked: For Good
2. No Other Choice
3. The Life of Chuck
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Nominees for Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. Weapons
5. Sorry, Baby

Best Original Screenplay Runner-Ups

1. The Secret Agent
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Blue Moon
4. Jay Kelly
5. Materalists

Predicted Nominees for Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Scarlet
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Animated Feature Runner-Ups

1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
2. Elio
3. In Your Dreams
4. Chainsaw Man — The Movie: Reze Arc
5. Dog Man

Predicted Nominees for Best Animated Short

1. Butterfly
2. Éiru
3. Snow Bear
4. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
5. Playing God

Best Animated Short Runner-Ups

1. Forevergreen
2. Autokar
3. Cardboard
4. I Died in Irpin
5. Retirement Plan

Predicted Nominees for Best Documentary Feature

1. The Alabama Solution
2. The Perfect Neighbor
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Apocalypse in the Tropics
5. Cover-Up

Best Documentary Feature Runner-Ups

1. Come See Me in the Good Light
2. Coexistence, My Ass!
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. Seeds
5. My Undesirable Friends

Predicted Nominees for Best Documentary Short

1. All the Walls Came Down
2. Armed Only with a Camera
3. All the Empty Rooms
4. Classroom 4
5. The Devil Is Busy

Best Documentary Short Runner-Ups

1. Cashing Out
2. Bad Hostage
3. Children No More: Were and Are Gone
4. Heartbeat
5. We Were the Scenery

Predicted Nominees for Best International Feature

1. The Secret Agent
2. Sentimental Value
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. No Other Choice
5. Sirât

Best International Feature Runner-Ups

1. The Voice of Hind Rajab
2. Belén
3. Left Handed Girl
4. Sound of Falling
5. Homebound

Predicted Nominees for Best Live-Action Short

1. The Singers
2. The Boy with White Skin
3. A Friend of Dorothy
4. Beyond Silence
5. Ado

Best Live-Action Short Runner-Ups

1. Amarela
2. Jane Austen’s Period Drama
3. Extremist
4. Rock, Paper, Scissors
5. Dad’s Not Home

Predicted Nominees for Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Sentimental Value
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Casting Runner-Ups

1. Hamnet
2. The Secret Agent
3. Weapons
4. Frankenstein
5. Sorry, Baby

Predicted Nominees for Best Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. F1

Best Cinematography Runner-Ups

1. Hamnet
2. Marty Supreme
3. Nouvelle Vague
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Bugonia

Predicted Nominees for Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Hamnet

Best Costume Design Runner-Ups

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Hedda
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman
5. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Predicted Nominees for Best Film Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. F1
3. Marty Supreme
4. Sinners
5. Sentimental Value

Best Film Editing Runner-Ups

1. Hamnet
2. Frankenstein
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. Weapons

Predicted Nominees for Best Makeup And Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. The Ugly Stepsister

Best Makeup And Hairstyling Runner-Ups

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Kokuho
4. Nuremberg
5. The Alto Knights

Predicted Nominees for Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet

Best Production Design Runner-Ups

1. One Battle After Another
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
3. The Fantastic Four: The First Steps
4. The Phoenician Scheme
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Predicted Nominees for Best Original Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

Best Score Runner-Ups

1. Sirât
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Tron: Ares
4. Bugonia
5. Train Dreams

Predicted Nominees for Best Original Song

1. Golden from Kpop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl in the Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless
5. No Place Like Home from Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song Runner-Ups

1. Train Dreams from Train Dreams
2. Last Time I Seen the Sun from Sinners
3. Drive from F1
4. Dream as One from Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Our Love from The Ballad of Wallis Island

Predicted Nominees for Best Sound

1. F1
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash
3. Sinners
4. Wicked: For Good
5. One Battle After Another

Best Sound Runner-Ups

1. Frankenstein
2. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
3. Sirât
4. Superman
5. Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning

Predicted Nominees for Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Frankenstein
3. Wicked: For Good
4. F1
5. Superman

Best Visual Effects Runner-Ups

1. Jurassic World Rebirth
2. Sinners
3. Tron: Ares
4. The Lost Bus
5. The Electric State