Tracking the Awards Buzz: The Oscar Race in October 2025

With September now behind us, October has already introduced a few new awards season hopefuls into the mix including Marty Supreme, Is This Thing On?, and Anemone.

As expected, Marty Supreme was the best received of the three, earning rave reviews from those in attendance at the surprise screening held during the New York Film Festival. The film screened again the following night in Los Angeles for a select audience that included awards pundits, critics, and filmmakers. While the LA crowd was still positive, they did not respond with quite the same enthusiasm as the New York audience. Still, one thing seems certain: Timothée Chalamet will be nominated for Best Actor and is currently the frontrunner for the Oscar.

I loved Adrien Brody in The Brutalist last year, but I thought Chalamet was excellent as Bob Dylan. That was a tough race, and I can’t help but wonder if portraying a music icon might have hurt his chances, given how many actors have already won Oscars for similar roles. I suspect we will see something comparable with Jeremy Allen White this year, whose performance as Bruce Springsteen remains my personal favorite male performance of the year. I should note that I haven’t seen Marty Supreme yet, but if the race came down to Leonardo DiCaprio and Jeremy Allen White, my vote goes to White without question.

Is This Thing On? seems to be generating solid buzz rather than great buzz. Bradley Cooper’s third directorial effort appears to be more of an acting showcase than a full-scale awards contender, though it could still find a path depending on the response from upcoming screenings. I’ll be seeing the film on Sunday. I was supposed to go Friday but ended up missing it due to the world famous LA traffic.

On the other hand, it’s probably safe to say that Anemone is likely DOA. Its premiere at the New York Film Festival didn’t win over most attendees, and the lackluster box office hasn’t helped. While Daniel Day-Lewis is an acting icon, I can’t see this film recovering from mixed reviews and poor box office numbers.

That said, Focus Features doesn’t need to worry too much given its strong slate with Bugonia and Hamnet, along with Song Sung Blue, starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson, which premieres at AFI Fest on October 26. I’m extremely excited about Song Sung Blue, though I’m not sure if it will be a major awards contender. Still, with two very likable stars, anything is possible, and we’ll find out soon enough.

In terms of Focus Features, I do think that Jessie Buckley is very likely to win Best Actress for Hamnet and I am pretty sure the film is in the top three for Best Picture and Best Director. While Bugonia hasn’t generated that much buzz since premiering at the fall festivals, I do feel like the combo of Emma Stone and Yorgos Lanthimos can’t be denied and this film has awards season written all over it.

Still left to be seen are Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire & Ash. I’m predicting that Wicked: For Good will score a ton of nominations, possibly equal to or greater to Part One. The hype surrounding this sequel feels next level, and Universal’s announcement of a multi-country tour shows they are going all in. Conversely, Avatar: Fire & Ash feels like a 50/50 shot for that final Best Picture slot. The buzz around this third entry isn’t nearly as strong as it was for The Way of Water, and audiences seem to feel like it’s just more of the same. I personally wasn’t a big fan of the second film, so I can’t say I’m overly excited for the third. While a Visual Effects nomination is a given, I’m not sure it will win this time around since the technology doesn’t seem to have advanced much since The Way of Water. These are all questions worth pondering as we await what’s likely to be the final major awards contender of the year.

Before diving into my latest set of predictions, one final title worth mentioning is The Smashing Machine. After a disappointing box office opening and a mixed critical and audience response, I’m uncertain whether the film will remain an awards player. I never expected it to go much further than potential nominations for Dwayne Johnson (Best Actor) and Emily Blunt (Best Supporting Actress), but now I’m doubtful either will make the cut. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that Blunt is likely out, while Johnson may have slipped from fifth to somewhere around seventh or eighth place. We’ll see what happens once the campaign ramps up, but with A24 juggling so many titles this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one gets lost in the shuffle, especially if Chalamet solidifies his frontrunner status.

Okay, now here are my latest picks for the “Big Eight”: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Screenplay.

Original Screenplay Front Runners

1. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
3. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (WB)
4. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident (Neon)

Original Screenplay Runner Ups

1. Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)
2. Noah Oppenheim for House of Dynamite (Netflix)
3. James Sweeney for Twinless (Roadside)
4. Hikari and Stephen Blahut for Rental Family (Searchlight)
5. Derek Cianfrance and Kirt Gunn for Roofman (Paramount)

Adapted Screenplay Front Runners

1. Chloe Zhao for Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Rian Johnson for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
4. Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
5. Will Tracy for Bugonia (Focus)

Adapted Screenplay Runner Ups

1. Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
2. Park Chan-wook, Don McKellar, Lee Kyoung-mi, and Lee Ja-hye for No Other Choice (Neon)
3. Mike Flanagan for The Life of Chuck (Neon)
4. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar for Train Dreams (Netflix)

Director Front Runners

1. Chloe Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (WB)
4. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident (Neon)

Director Runner Ups

1. Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice (Neon)
2. Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (Focus Features)
3. Kathryn Bigelow for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
4. Jon M. Chu for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
5. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)

Supporting Actress Front Runners

1. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Universal)
2. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (Neon)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (Neon)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (WB)

Supporting Actress Runner Ups

1. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (WB)
2. Hailee Steinfeld – Sinners (WB)
3. Regina Hall – One Battle After Another (WB)
4. Amy Madigan – Weapons (WB)
5. Jennifer Lopez – Kiss of the Spider-Woman (Roadside)

Supporting Actor Front Runners 

1. Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
4. Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
5. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)

Supporting Actor Runner Ups

1. Miles Canton – Sinners (WB)
2. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (WB)
4. Jonathan Bailey for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
5. Billy Crudup – Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Actress Front Runners 

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (Neon)
3. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features)
4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (Universal)
5. Sydney Sweeney – Christy (Black Bear)

Actress Runner-Ups

1. Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
2. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
4. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM Studios)
5. Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love (Mubi)

Actor Front Runners

1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Surpreme (A24)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (WB)
5. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (Neon)

Actor Runner Ups

1. George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
2. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Focus Features)
3. Brendan Fraser – Family Rental (Searchlight)
4. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (A24)
5. Channing Tatum – Roofman (Paramount Pictures)

Best Picture Front Runners

1. One Battle After Another (WB)
2. Hamnet (Focus Features)
3. Sinners (WB)
4. Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Marty Supreme (A24)
6. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
7. Bugonia (Focus Features)
8. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
10. It was Just An Accident (Neon)

Best Picture Runner Ups

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Disney)
2. F1 (WB)
3. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
4. No Other Choice (Neon)
5. Weapons (WB)
6. Frankenstein (Netflix)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
8. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
9. Rental Family (Searchlight)
10. The Secret Agent (Neon)