Scott Menzel’s Oscar Predictions: December 2024

December is almost over. The Gothams and the Astra Awards took place earlier this month where Sing Sing took home top acting prizes at the Gothams and Wicked dominated the Astras. The nominations for the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards have also been revealed. Winners have been announced for AFI, the National Board of Review, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and the New York Film Critics, amongst many other critic organizations across the globe. And last, but certainly not least, the Academy revealed their short list picks, which will shape and narrow down 10 categories leading into nomination voting on January 8th.

With certain films dominating some groups but being completely left out of others, there is a still a lot of room for interpretation on which films are sure bets and which ones could end up missing. The big question that still remains is which films are the actual favorites of Academy voters?

Additionally, with the exception of A Complete Unknown, I feel fairly comfortable saying that most of the December releases won’t matter much to Oscar voters. While Nosferatu could pop up in a below the line category or two, such as cinematography; I just don’t see the film receiving any above the line nominations.

So with all that being said and based on how everything has played out throughout the month of December, this is how I believe Academy nominations will end up looking like next month.

Best Picture:

1. Wicked
2. The Brutalist 
3. Anora
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Conclave
6. Dune: Part Two
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Nickel Boys
9. The Substance
10. Sing Sing

Best Actor:

1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist 
2. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown 
3. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
5. Daniel Craig – Queer

Best Actress:

1. Mikey Madison – Anora 
2. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
3. Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
4. Angelina Jolie – Maria
5. Demi Moore – The Substance 

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
2. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II 
3. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist 
4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing 
5. Yura Borisov – Anora

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
2. Ariana Grande – Wicked
3. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
4. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
5. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

Best Director:

1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist 
2. Sean Baker – Anora 
3. Edward Berger – Conclave 
4. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
5. Jon M. Chu – Wicked

Best Original Screenplay:

1. A Real Pain
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist  
4. The Substance
5. September 5th

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Conclave
2. Sing Sing 
3. Wicked
4. Nickel Boys
5. Dune: Part Two

Best Animated Feature:

1. The Wild Robot
2. Inside Out 2
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Memoir of a Snail 
5. Flow

Best Documentary Feature:

1. Sugarcane
2. Dahomey
3. Daughters
4. No Other Land
5. Will & Harper

Best International Feature:

1. Emilia Perez 
2. The Seed of a Sacred Fig
3. Flow
4. I’m Still Here
5. Kneecap

Best Score:

1. The Wild Robot
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Challengers
5. Emilia Perez

Best Original Song Predictions

1. Kiss the Sky  – The Wild Robot 
2. Mi Camino  – Emilia Perez 
3. El Mal  – Emilia Perez 
4. The Journey – The Six Triple Eight
5. Like a Bird – Sing Sing

Best Cinematography:

1. The Brutalist  
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Emilia Perez 
4. Nosferatu
5. Nickel Boys

Best Costume Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Nosferatu
4. Gladiator II
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing:

1. Dune: Part Two 
2. The Brutalist
3. Anora
4. Conclave
5. Challengers

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

1. The Substance
2. Wicked 
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Nosferatu

Best Production Design:

1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Gladiator II 
4. The Brutalist 
5. Conclave

Best Sound:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked 
3. Gladiator II
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Emilia Perez

Best Visual Effects:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Wicked
4. Gladiator II 
5. Twisters

Best Animated Short:

1. Beautiful Men
2. Yuck!
3. Wander to Wonder
4. Origami
5. A Bear Named Wojtek

Best Documentary Short:

1. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
2. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
3. Death by Numbers
4. I Am Ready, Warden
5. Chasing Roo

Best Live Action Short:

1. Anuja
2. The Masterpiece
3. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
4. The Compatriot
5. An Orange from Jaffa