Tracking the Awards Buzz: The Oscar Race in September 2025

Now that the Emmys are behind us, it’s officially time to shift our attention to the Academy Awards. On the surface, it may feel too early to dive into predictions, but the truth is Oscar season kicked off about three weeks ago when the Venice Film Festival set things in motion.

Over the past two and a half weeks, I’ve screened a large slate of contenders in preparation for the Oscars. While I still have about a dozen titles left to see, I feel like I already have a strong sense of how the race is shaping up and who the top contenders will be.

This piece won’t attempt to cover every category because let’s be real, September is far too early for that level of deep dive. That said, I am going to focus on the “Big Eight”: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Screenplay.

Most of the major players have already been unveiled on the festival circuit, but a few outliers are still to come. Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: Fire & Ash won’t screen for another month or two, while titles like Anemone and Song Sung Blue may shake up the acting races once they’re unveiled. For now, though, I feel confident in my early take on who the nominees might be.

Before I begin, I’d like to make one bold prediction: I believe Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another will end up as the most nominated film at the Oscars. While I’m not entirely sure it will win the most awards, I can definitely see it leading the field in nominations.

Okay, now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s start with my predictions for Original Screenplay.

Original Screenplay Front Runners

1. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
3. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (WB)
4. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident (Neon)

Original Screenplay Runner Ups

1. Hikari and Stephen Blahut for Rental Family (Searchlight)
2. Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)
3. Noah Oppenheim for House of Dynamite (Netflix)
4. James Sweeney for Twinless (Roadside)
5. Derek Cianfrance and Kirt Gunn for Roofman (Paramount)

Adapted Screenplay Front Runners

1. Chloe Zhao for Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Rian Johnson for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
4. Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
5. Park Chan-wook, Don McKellar, Lee Kyoung-mi, and Lee Ja-hye for No Other Choice (Neon)

Adapted Screenplay Runner Ups

1. Will Tracy for Bugonia (Focus)
2. Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
3. Mike Flanagan for The Life of Chuck (Neon)

Director Front Runners

1. Ryan Coogler for Sinners (WB)
2. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Chloe Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
4. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Kathryn Bigelow for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)

Director Runner Ups

1. Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice (Neon)
2. Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (Focus Features)
3. Jon M. Chu for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
4. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine (A24)

Supporting Actress Front Runners

1. Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)
3. Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
4. Rebecca Ferguson for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24)

Supporting Actress Runner Ups

1. Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (WB)
2. Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)
3. Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine (A24)
4. Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another (WB)
5. Hailee Steinfeld for Sinners (WB)

Supporting Actor Front Runners

1. Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Jeremy Strong – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
3. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (WB)
4. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
5. Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)

Supporting Actor Runner Ups

1. Miles Canton – Sinners (WB)
2. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Delroy Lindo – Sinners (WB)
4. Bradley Cooper – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
5. Billy Crudup – Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Actress Front Runners

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. Sydney Sweeney – Christy (Black Bear)
3. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (Neon)
4. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features)
5. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (Universal)

Actress Runner-Ups

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love (Mubi)
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
3. Tessa Thompson – Hedda (Amazon MGM Studios)
4. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM Studios)
5. Julia Garner – Weapons (WB)

Actor Front Runners

1. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (WB)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Timothee Chalamet – Marty Surpreme (A24)
4. Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
5. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (A24)

Actor Runner Ups

1. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (Focus Features)
2. Brendan Fraser – Family Rental (Searchlight)
3. George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
4. Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone (Focus Features)
5. Channing Tatum – Roofman (Paramount Pictures)

Best Picture Front Runners

1. Hamnet (Focus Features)
2. One Battle After Another (WB)
3. Sinners (WB)
4. Sentimental Value (Neon)
5. Marty Supreme (A24)
6. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
7. Bugonia (Focus Features)
8. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Disney)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)

Best Picture Runner Ups

1. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
2. It was Just An Accident (Neon)
3. No Other Choice (Neon)
4. Rental Family (Searchlight)
5. The Smashing Machine (A24)
6. Roofman (Paramount Pictures)
7. Weapons (WB)
8. Frankenstein (Netflix)
9. Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix)
10. F1 (WB)

What are your predictions? Feel free to comment below or tag us at #AwardsBuzz on social media.