Scott Menzel’s Oscar Predictions: November 2024

November is here, and we are officially in the final stretch of any remaining Oscar hopefuls screening before the start of nomination voting for the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and other critic groups and guilds.

I believe it is essential that we look at what has been screened and where things currently stand in the race. Several awards hopefuls have been released in theaters, while others are releasing within the next few weeks. While box office success doesn’t always translate into nominations, I do believe that it does help determine a buzz level. Films like Saturday Night and Joker: Folie à Deux were once considered significant players, but as of right now, I can’t see either movie being nominated for more than one category, and that is if they are lucky.

Last week, The Gothams kicked off award season by revealing their nominations. Unlike in previous years, the Gotham nominations featured many films and performances that will likely remain in the conversation over the next four months. The big Gotham shocker, however, was the total absence of Emilia Pérez in every category. Netflix has been campaigning for the film incredibly hard, and the film was quite the fan favorite at several festivals, including Cannes, Telluride, and TIFF.

Additionally, the Critics Choice Association has promoted the film daily on their social media accounts over the last several weeks. Likely Best Supporting Actress winner Zoe Saldana was recently presented with the Groundbreaker Award at the CCA’s Celebration of Latino Cinema, and the actress has received numerous honorary awards at several small award-focused fall festivals, including SCAD in Atlanta. Emilia Pérez will fare quite well this award season in multiple categories. If shortlisted, the film can win the Best International Feature category. Netflix won with All Quiet on the Western Front in that category two short years ago.

While September 5th seems to be the underdog favorite for some of my fellow critics and awards pundits, I am sad to report that after seeing the film at AFI, I don’t buy into the hype. I believe September 5th, similar to Saturday Night and Joker 2, will be lucky if it receives a single nomination. Please don’t get me wrong; I didn’t think September 5th was a bad film, but I don’t see it becoming a significant awards player, especially with the current political climate.

On the flip side, I do think that Wicked is going to be a major awards player. I can see Wicked being nominated for Best Picture and several below-the-line categories. I would love to see Jon M. Chu nominated for director, and considering how open the Best Supporting Actress field is at the moment, I can see a world where Ariana gets nominated there, too.

Over the next few weeks, be ready to see reactions from critics and awards pundits for the final batch of contenders. Focus Features Nosferatu, Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown, Warner Bros. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrimand and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King will screen within 27 days.

Will any of those films become award players? My gut is saying yes, even though it is hard to know how much of an impact any of them will have on the race.

Best Picture:

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist 
3. Conclave
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Wicked
6. Dune: Part Two
7. A Real Pain 
8. Nosferatu
9. Nickel Boys
10. Sing Sing

Best Actor:

1. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
2. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown 
3. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist 
4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
5. Daniel Craig – Queer

Best Actress:

1. Mikey Madison – Anora 
2. Angelina Jolie – Maria
3. Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
4. Demi Moore – The Substance 
5. Amy Adams – Nightbitch

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
2. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist 
3. Stanley Tucci – Conclave
4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing 
5. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II 

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
2. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lessons
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys 
4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
5. Ariana Grande – Wicked

Best Director:

1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist 
2. Sean Baker – Anora 
3. Edward Berger – Conclave 
4. Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
5. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

Best Original Screenplay:

1. A Real Pain
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist  
4. Saturday Night
5. Blitz

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Conclave
2. Sing Sing 
3. Emilia Perez
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Nickel Boys

Best Animated Feature:

1. The Wild Robot
2. Inside Out 2
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Memoir of a Snail 
5. Moana 2

Best Documentary Feature:

1. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
2. Will & Harper
3. Dahomey
4. Daughters
5. Sugarcane

Best International Feature:

1. Emilia Perez 
2. The Seed of a Sacred Fig
3. All We Imagine as Light
4. I’m Still Here
5. Cloud

Best Score Predictions

1. The Wild Robot
2. Conclave
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Challengers
5. The Brutalist

Best Original Song Predictions

1. El Mal  – Emilia Perez 
2. Kiss the Sky  – The Wild Robot 
3. Beyond – Moana 2
4. Piece by Piece – Piece by Piece 
5. Like a Bird – Sing Sing

Best Cinematography Predictions

1. The Brutalist  
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Maria
4. Emilia Perez 
5. Nosferatu

Best Costume Design Predictions

1. Wicked
2. Nosferatu 
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
5. Gladiator II

Best Film Editing Predictions

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two 
3. Gladiator II
4. Anora
5. Conclave

Best Makeup & Hairstyling Predictions

1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 
2. Wicked 
3. Nosferatu
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Substance

Best Production Design Predictions

1. Conclave
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Wicked 
4. The Brutalist 
5. Nosferatu

Best Sound Predictions

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked 
3. Twisters
4. Gladiator II
5. Emilia Perez

Best Visual Effects Predictions

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Gladiator 2 
5. Wicked