Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Feature Film

Fifteen documentary films have been shortlisted in the Best Documentary Feature category for the 97^th Oscars. Recent winners include 20 Days in Mariupol, Navalny, Summer of Soul, and My Octopus Teacher. One of this year’s expected nominees, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, did not make the cut, leaving this race with a few frontrunners and handful of question marks.

Creativity isn’t critical to this nonfiction film category, but it can help. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat is mesmerizingly constructed, weaving together a history of musicians and African countries in a unique way. Eno, an energizing portrait of musician Brian Eno,is different every time audiences watch it, a thoroughly original style of filmmaking. Dahomey, which has also been shortlisted for Best International Feature as the Senegalese submission, gives literal voice to its inanimate objects as it traces the return of artifacts from France to Benin. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin gets to know its deceased subject through video game recreations, mirroring the way in which he was able to truly live his life.

Examining military conflicts is a common focus of past nominees in this category, and is also present in some of this year’s entries. No Other Land, cited by many critics’ groups as the best documentary of the year, takes an on-the-ground look at West Bank villages being consistently destroyed by Israel. Porcelain War focuses on artists fighting for the survival of Ukraine. Hollywoodgate is a shockingly open and revealing look at the Taliban in the immediate aftermath of the departure of American forces from Afghanistan.

Fighting against corruption and injustice is a hallmark of many great documentaries, which seek to expose important ideas to a broad audience. Black Box Diaries chronicles journalist Shiori Ito’s battle against the Japanese establishment and the man who sexually assaulted her. Queendom follows a queer artist in Russia determined to protest the regime. Union documents the fight for the creation of a labor union for Amazon employees. The Bibi Files examines the desperate quest by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in power in the face of strong evidence of corruption.

The impact of history is also important, and Sugarcane, which looks at the troubling past of Canada’s schools for indigenous people, is a film that definitely fits that bill. Frida is an invigorating portrait of a trailblazing artist brought to vivid life by narrations of written testimonies. Looking ahead to a more promising future can also be inspiring, as is the case with Daughters, which focuses on incarcerated men preparing for a father-daughter dance, and Will & Harper, which chronicles comedian Will Ferrell’s cross-country road trip with his friend Harper, who has newly come out as transgender.

Considering all the contenders, it’s hard to know what’s ahead. No Other Land and Sugarcane have both been highly praised and feel unlikely to be snubbed. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat may be the most ambitious of these films and is likely to impress voters, while Eno, however astounding, is a mystery since few voters will have seen the very same version of the film. Daughters and Will & Harper are both affirming and uplifting, which may or may not be what voters want, but positivity is never a bad thing. Black Box Diaries and Union have also earned acclaim, and Dahomey being on the Best International Feature shortlist shouldn’t be overlooked. Can Frida or either of the military-set documentaries, Porcelain War or Hollywoodgate, show up too? And don’t underestimate The Remarkable Life of Ibelin. It’s a competitive race, and only The Bib Files and Queendom would be sincere surprises.

Predicted nominees: Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Will & Harper