Nominations for the 98th Oscars will be announced in 24 categories on Thursday, January 22nd.
For the top category, it’s worth looking at how the frontrunners have fared with a variety of groups, namely the Critics Choice Awards, Producers Guild of America, Golden Globes, National Board of Review, American Film Institute, Directors Guild of America, and Screen Actors Guild:
One Battle After Another: CC, PGA, GG, NBR, AFI, DGA, SAG
Sinners: CC, PGA, GG, NBR, AFI, DGA, SAG
Hamnet: CC, PGA, GG, AFI, DGA, SAG
Frankenstein: CC, PGA, GG, NBR, AFI, DGA, SAG
Marty Supreme: CC, PGA, GG, NBR, AFI, DGA, SAG
Sentimental Value: CC, PGA, GG
It Was Just An Accident: GG
The Secret Agent: GG
Bugonia: CC, PGA, GG, AFI,
Wicked: For Good: CC, NBR, AFI
Train Dreams: CC, PGA, NBR, AFI
Avatar: Fire and Ash: NBR, AFI
F1: NBR, PGA
No Other Choice: GG
Weapons: PGA
Jay Kelly: CC, NBR, AFI
Blue Moon: GG
Nouvelle Vague: GG
Rental Family: NBR
Wake Up Dead Man: NBR
One Battle After Another took home the Critics Choice Award, National Board of Review prize for Best Film, and a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical, while Hamnet won the Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama.
Based on overall awards season trends, the top five slots are locked. Joining this year’s inarguable frontrunner are Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein, and Marty Supreme. It’s a very international year, with Sentimental Value the early foreign favorite but now overtaken by The Secret Agent, which beat it out at both the Critics Choice Awards and Globes. It Was Just an Accident should still be in play thanks to the passion behind it, while NEON’s other two contenders, No Other Choice and Sirât, feel less likely at this point.
It’s strange to think that Wicked: For Good is a severe longshot at this point given that the first film was a high-profile nominee last year, but it will need to stay ahead of other blockbusters like Avatar: Fire and Ash, hoping for a third franchise Best Picture nomination, and F1. Bugonia has performed relatively steadily all season, while Train Dreams continues to do decently and other presumed frontrunners, like Jay Kelly, have shown up more sporadically. Weapons is surging at just the right moment, while Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague would be true shockers, as would Wake Up Dead Man, Rental Family, or another presumed contender that hasn’t been recognized almost anywhere: The Testament of Ann Lee.
Predicted nominees:
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
