Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature

This year’s race for Best International Feature has been narrowed down to fifteen finalists, but it really feels like there are just three frontrunners and then it could be anyone’s guess. Inarguably the most talked-about foreign film of the year is Emilia Pérez, France’s submission set in Mexico. While some have decried a problematic storyline about a transgender character, it doesn’t seem to be losing any steam, earning a blockbuster ten Golden Globe nominations and widely expected to contend for Best Picture and multiple acting prizes. Director Jacques Audiard’s 2009 film A Prophet was nominated in this race. While All We Imagine as Light has also been resoundingly praised, India opted to select Lost Ladies instead, which didn’t even make the shortlist. The Seed of the Sacred Fig, submitted by Germany but set entirely in Iran, is another surefire contender whose recent awards run has been paltry but shouldn’t dent its chances at a nomination, even if the win feels less likely at this point. I’m Still Here, from Brazilian director Walter Salles, previously nominated for 1998’s Central Station, has also earned acclaim and is a dark horse contender for a Best Actress nomination for star Fernanda Torres.

Next, it’s worth considering the films that have shown up on other Oscar shortlists. While not technically on a shortlist, Flow, from Latvia, is looking to become the third-ever animated film, after Waltz with Bashir and Flee, to contend in this race, which is a distinct possibility not nearly as sewn-up as its almost-certain Best Animated Feature mention (its recent Golden Globe win also helps boosts its profile). In addition to containing no dialogue, this would also mark Latvia’s first-ever nomination in this category. Dahomey, from Senegal, is also on the shortlist for Best Documentary Feature, and its inclusion would make it the fourth such film to contend for both prizes, following Flee, Honeyland, and Collective. This is only the 6th film from Senegal to be submitted, and two previous entries have made the shortlist, including director Mati Diop’s Atlantics, but her latest film would mark the first nomination for the country. Kneecap, from Ireland, also made the Oscar shortlist for Best Original Song, and would be the second Irish film nominated in this category after The Quiet Girl two years ago.

Other buzzworthy entries in this race include Golden Globe nominees The Girl with the Needle, from Denmark, and Vermigilio, from Italy. These historical films come from countries that have done very well in this category before, with Italy winning back in 2013 and earning two nominations since then. This is Denmark’s fifth consecutive year placing on the shortlist. It last won in 2020 for Another Round and was nominated the following year for Flee. The other film with major momentum is the first Thai entry to make the shortlist after thirty previous tries: How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies.

Last year’s winning country, the United Kingdom, is on the hunt for another nomination with Santosh, which is in Hindi and has earned praise for its spotlight of a widow who takes over her husband’s job as a police officer. It would mark the fourth-ever bid for the country whose films are primarily in English and therefore not eligible for consideration. The star of Norway’s most recent nominated film, The Worst Person in the World, Renate Reinsve, is also the star of its submission this year, Armand, which is a much more intimate modern-day character study with unnerving themes. Universal Language, which is mostly in Farsi, is a curious choice which could put Canada back in this race for the first time since 2012. Its lone win was back in 2003. Waves, from the Czech Republic, is a film very much focused on its country’s specific history that might be a surprise pick. Despite two shortlist mentions in the past decade, the Czech Republic’s last nomination was back in 2003 and it won in 1996. Lastly, Palestine’s From Ground Zero is a bit of a wild card. Its collection of many short films from filmmakers in Gaza will surely feel relevant to voters, who have also shortlisted the documentary feature No Other Land in that category, though it’s not clear how it will compare to single feature-length stories. It may hit at just the right time to overwhelm and outpace the other more traditional submissions in this race.

Predicted nominees: Emilia Pérez, From Ground Zero, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig